Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Sep 3, 2025
Date Accepted: Dec 23, 2025
Bayesian models to generate small area estimates of population health: A tutorial for using Rate Stabilizing Tools and their output
ABSTRACT
The demand for high-quality population health data at the local level calls for expanded tools for those working to enhance the health of communities across the country to easily calculate small area estimates. Statistical models that generate small area estimates often utilize Bayesian estimation techniques which are computationally complex and not readily accessible to most public health professionals. We developed two tools to facilitate small area estimation. For ESRI users, we developed the RSTbx ArcGIS plugin and for R users we developed the RSTr R package. In this tutorial, we demonstrate how to use these tools to calculate small area estimates and evaluate their reliability. We also demonstrate three key benefits from using either of these tools: 1) decreased number of geographic units with suppressed estimates, 2) flexibility to set the threshold for statistical reliability, and 3) credible intervals that can be used to identify statistically significant differences between geographic units. Additionally, both tools offer built-in age-standardization capabilities. We created census tract-level maps from North Carolina mortality data and Rhode Island hospitalization data to showcase the benefits of generating small area estimates with these tools. RSTbx and RSTr are powerful tools that can be used to meet the demand for high-quality local-level data to inform public health programs and tailor health promotion activities to the needs of communities across the country.
Citation
Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.
Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.