JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

The prevention and treatment of gastric cancer (GC) pose a grave threat to the health and well-being of patients. The five East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) represent one of the most significant regions globally in terms of GC burden.

Objective:

Our goal is to examine the patterns and trends of GC across five East Asian countries between 1990 and 2021.

Methods:

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 regarding the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with GC in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021. We further assessed the burden of GC according to age and sex. We employed decomposition analysis to examine the changes in the number of new cases, patients, and deaths related to GC. We also utilized Joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods to interpret the epidemiological characteristics of GC. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction models were used to forecast the GC burden by 2036.

Results:

Among the five East Asian countries, China recorded the highest incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs in both 1990 and 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized rates for prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), incidence (ASIR), YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs (ASDR) across the five East Asian countries showed an overall decline, though they remained higher than the global average. In all five East Asian countries, individuals aged 55 and older consistently exhibited the highest rates for prevalence, incidence, mortality, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs. The prevalence and incidence rates in the five East Asian countries are influenced by aging, surpassing the global average.

Conclusions:

The disease burden of GC in the five East Asian countries has consistently ranked high level over the past three decades, particularly among the elderly. The burden of GC in the five East Asian countries is expected to present a major public health challenge, primarily driven by the large population size and the aging demographic.