JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

The incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer rank in the top 10 among all cancers, with significant sex-specific. Due to their anatomic proximity, esophageal and gastric cancer have both different but also shared risk factors and epidemiological features. Exploring the potential correlated incidence pattern of esophageal and gastric cancer, holds significant importance in providing clues in the etiology and preventive strategies.

Objective:

This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal correlation between the incidence patterns of esophageal and gastric cancer in 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 so that prevention and control strategies can be more effective.

Methods:

The data of esophageal and gastric cancer were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The global spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using Moran's I of ArcGIS 10.8. To classify risk areas, we quantified the relative risk levels based on the risk ratio (RR) of the two cancers in various countries to the global. Average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify temporal trends. The correlation between the temporal trends in the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer was quantified by Pearson correlation coefficients. All analyses were stratified by sex.

Results:

We found that the ASIR of esophageal and gastric cancer in East and Central Asia all ranked within the top six among 21 geographic regions in both sexes. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant spatial clustering of the incidence of both cancers. There were more countries and territories belonging to high-risk area (RR value > 2.000) for esophageal cancer or gastric cancer in females than in males. Malawi was identified as the highest risk for esophageal cancer (RRmale = 3.265; RRfemale = 5.192) and low risk for gastric cancer (RRmale = 0.213; RRfemale = 0.231) in both sexes. A positive correlation between the risk of esophageal and gastric cancer was observed in males. The ASIR of both cancers showed a decreasing trend globally. An AAPC of -1.428 (95% CI -1.583 to -1.273) and -1.756 (95% CI -2.081 to -1.429) in ASIR for esophageal cancer and gastric cancer among males, while an AAPC of -1.931 (95% CI -2.112 to -1.750) and -1.794 (95% CI -2.132 to -1.456) in ASIR for esophageal cancer and gastric cancer among females. Additionally, a positive correlation between the temporal trends in ASIR for both cancers was observed in most countries and territories.

Conclusions:

This spatiotemporal correlation study simultaneously investigates esophageal and gastric cancer, which share many risk factors. A deeper understanding of the homogeneity and heterogeneity in the incidence pattern of the two cancers enables more effective prevention and control strategies for both diseases.