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Net reproduction number as a real-time metric of population reproducibility
Chiara Achangwa;
Changhee Han;
Jun-Sik Lim;
Seonghui Cho;
Sangbum Choi;
Sukhyun Ryu
ABSTRACT
A total fertility rate (TFR) is known to be biased when there is a sex-ratio imbalance at birth and does not take into account the mortality of women of childbearing age. Here, we estimate the reproduction rate (R_t), which adjusts for sex-ratio imbalance and the mortality of women of childbearing age. Furthermore, we assessed the difference between the time series data of TFR and R_t in the South Korean population. We found the R_t captured a below replacement level of the population a year earlier than the TFR. However, the estimate of the time-series analysis of R_t was found to be not significantly different from that of the estimates of the TFR. Our finding suggests that the R_t can provide real-time information on the adjusted population reproducibility and policy impact analysis.
Citation
Please cite as:
Achangwa C, Han C, Lim JS, Cho S, Choi S, Ryu S
Net Reproduction Number as a Real-Time Metric of Population Reproducibility