Maintenance Notice

Due to necessary scheduled maintenance, the JMIR Publications website will be unavailable from Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience this may cause you.

Who will be affected?

Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

Date Submitted: Jun 24, 2024
Open Peer Review Period: Jun 24, 2024 - Aug 19, 2024
Date Accepted: Dec 4, 2024
(closed for review but you can still tweet)

The final, peer-reviewed published version of this preprint can be found here:

Net Reproduction Number as a Real-Time Metric of Population Reproducibility

Achangwa C, Han C, Lim JS, Cho S, Choi S, Ryu S

Net Reproduction Number as a Real-Time Metric of Population Reproducibility

JMIR Public Health Surveill 2025;11:e63603

DOI: 10.2196/63603

PMID: 39937115

PMCID: 11837414

Net reproduction number as a real-time metric of population reproducibility

  • Chiara Achangwa; 
  • Changhee Han; 
  • Jun-Sik Lim; 
  • Seonghui Cho; 
  • Sangbum Choi; 
  • Sukhyun Ryu

ABSTRACT

A total fertility rate (TFR) is known to be biased when there is a sex-ratio imbalance at birth and does not take into account the mortality of women of childbearing age. Here, we estimate the reproduction rate (R_t), which adjusts for sex-ratio imbalance and the mortality of women of childbearing age. Furthermore, we assessed the difference between the time series data of TFR and R_t in the South Korean population. We found the R_t captured a below replacement level of the population a year earlier than the TFR. However, the estimate of the time-series analysis of R_t was found to be not significantly different from that of the estimates of the TFR. Our finding suggests that the R_t can provide real-time information on the adjusted population reproducibility and policy impact analysis.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Achangwa C, Han C, Lim JS, Cho S, Choi S, Ryu S

Net Reproduction Number as a Real-Time Metric of Population Reproducibility

JMIR Public Health Surveill 2025;11:e63603

DOI: 10.2196/63603

PMID: 39937115

PMCID: 11837414

Download PDF


Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.

© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.