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Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Formative Research

Date Submitted: Apr 6, 2024
Date Accepted: Nov 6, 2024

The final, peer-reviewed published version of this preprint can be found here:

Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study

Sasaki K, Ikeda Y, Nakano T

Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study

JMIR Form Res 2025;9:e59230

DOI: 10.2196/59230

PMID: 39757976

PMCID: 11751695

Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread

  • Kenji Sasaki; 
  • Yoichi Ikeda; 
  • Takashi Nakano

ABSTRACT

Background:

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused serious health problems and has had major economic and social consequences worldwide. Understanding how infectious diseases spread can help mitigating the social and economic impact.

Objective:

The study focuses to capture the degrees of disproportionality in prevalence rates of infectious disease across different regions over time.

Methods:

We analyze the numbers of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in the United States collected by Johns Hopkins University over 1100 days since the first reported case in January 2020 in order to assess quantitatively the disproportionality of the confirmed cases using the Theil index, a measure of imbalance used in economics.

Results:

Our results reveal a dynamic pattern of interregional disproportionality in the confirmed cases by monitoring variations in regional contributions to the Theil index as the pandemic progresses.

Conclusions:

The combined monitoring of this indicator and the confirmed cases is crucial for understanding regional differences in infectious diseases and for effective planning of response and resource allocation.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Sasaki K, Ikeda Y, Nakano T

Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study

JMIR Form Res 2025;9:e59230

DOI: 10.2196/59230

PMID: 39757976

PMCID: 11751695

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