JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

With global warming, the number of days with extreme heat is expected to increase and may cause more acute heat illnesses. While decreasing emissions may mitigate the climate impacts, its effectiveness in reducing acute heat illnesses remains uncertain. Taiwan has established a real-time epidemic surveillance and early warning system to monitor the acute heat illnesses since Jan 1, 2011.

Objective:

The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of acute heat illnesses using public health surveillance data.

Methods:

We obtained the numbers of acute heat illnesses in Taiwan from Jan 2011 to July 2023 using emergency department visit data from the Real-time Epidemic Surveillance and Early Warning System. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model to analyze the effect of temperature on the number of acute heat illnesses. Using the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 (TaiESM1) climate model and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)5-8.5. (high-level fossil fuel use) scenario and SSP2-4.5. (middle-of-the-road approach) scenario, we projected the temperature distribution and excess acute heat illnesses through the end of the century.

Results:

A total of 28,661 patients were reported with a mean age of 44.46±15.29 years, of whom 75.43% were males. The attributable number and fraction of acute heat illnesses due to the extreme heat temperature (>90 percentile temperature) was 7,686 (44.98%). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the future number and attributable fraction of acute heat illnesses caused by extreme heat temperatures will increase to 22,906 and 94.83% in 2090-2099. If Taiwan takes a middle-of-the-road approach, the attributable number and fraction of acute heat illnesses due to the extreme heat temperature will decrease to 5,264 and 76.7%.

Conclusions:

The middle-of-the-road carbon reduction adaptation policy can help mitigate the risk of acute heat illnesses. Clinical Trial: N/A