Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Feb 8, 2024
Open Peer Review Period: Feb 9, 2024 - Apr 5, 2024
Date Accepted: May 7, 2024
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Spatial-temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shenzhen, China, 2010-2019
ABSTRACT
Background:
Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic communicable disease of major public health and social concern. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and clusters of PTB in Shenzhen municipality to provide reference of PTB prevention and control.
Objective:
Detect the prevalence of tuberculosis and provide guidance on defense efforts
Methods:
Data of reported PTB cases in Shenzhen from January 2010 to December 2019 was extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Time series, spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scanning analyses were performed to identify the spatial and temporal patterns and high-risk areas at the street level.
Results:
A total of 58122 PTB cases were notified in Shenzhen. The annual notification rate of PTB decreased significantly from 64.97 per 100000 population in 2010 to 43.43 per 100000 population in 2019. PTB cases have shown seasonal variations with the peak in late spring and summer each year. The PTB notification rate was non-randomly distribution and spatially clustering with the Moran’s I value of 0.134 (P<0.05). One most likely cluster and ten secondary clusters were detected, and the most likely clustering area was centered at Nanshan Street of Nanshan District covering six streets, with the clustering time from January 2010 to November 2012.
Conclusions:
This study identified seasonal patterns and spatial-temporal clusters at the street level in Shenzhen municipality. Resources should be prioritized to high-risk areas for PTB prevention and control.
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© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.