Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Dec 5, 2023
Date Accepted: Jun 12, 2024
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
The Mediating Role of Human Mobility in Temporal-lagged Relationships Between Public Risk Perception and COVID-19 Progression: Comparing Pre- and Omicron Eras in Taiwan
ABSTRACT
Background:
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted all aspects of human life for over three years. Understanding the evolution of public risk perception during these periods is crucial. Few studies explore the mechanisms for reducing disease transmission due to risk perception. We hypothesize that changes in human mobility play a mediating role between risk perception and the progression of the pandemic.
Objective:
The study explores how various forms of human mobility, including essential, non-essential, and job-related behaviors, mediate the temporal relationships between risk perception and pandemic dynamics.
Methods:
We utilized distributed-lag linear structural equation models (DLSEMs) to compare the mediating impact of human mobility across different virus variant periods. These models examined the temporal dynamics and time-lagged effects among risk perception, changes in mobility, and virus transmission in Taiwan, focusing on two distinct periods: 1) April-August 2021 (pre-Omicron era) and 2) February-September 2022 (Omicron era).
Results:
In the pre-Omicron era, our findings showed that an increase in public risk perception correlated with significant reductions in COVID-19 cases across various types of mobility within specific timeframes. Specifically, we observed a decrease of 5·59 (95% CI [-4·35, -6·83]) COVID-19 cases per million individuals after 7 weeks in non-essential mobility, while essential mobility demonstrated a reduction of 10·73 (95% CI [-9·6030, -11·8615]) cases after 8 weeks. Additionally, job-related mobility resulted in a decrease of 3·96 (95% CI [-3·5039, -4·4254]) cases after 11 weeks. However, during the Omicron era, these effects notably diminished. A reduction of 0·85 (95% CI [-1·0046, -0·6953]) cases through non-essential mobility after 10 weeks and a decrease of 0·69 (95% CI [-0·7827, -0·6054]) cases through essential mobility after 12 weeks were observed.
Conclusions:
This study confirms that changes in mobility serve as a mediating factor between heightened risk perception and pandemic mitigation in both pre-Omicron and Omicron periods. This suggests that elevating risk perception is notably effective in impeding virus progression, especially when vaccines are unavailable or their coverage remains limited. Our findings provide significant value for health authorities in devising policies to address the global threats posed by emerging infectious diseases. Clinical Trial: None. All data is from publicly available datasets.
Citation
