Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Oct 6, 2023
Open Peer Review Period: Oct 6, 2023 - Oct 20, 2023
Date Accepted: May 24, 2024
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
The Distribution and Associated Factors of HIV/AIDS among Youths in Guangxi, China, From 2014 to 2021: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis
ABSTRACT
Background:
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases among youth has increased year by year around the world. A spatial and temporal analysis of these AIDS cases is necessary for the development of youth AIDS prevention and control policies.
Objective:
This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and associated factors of HIV/AIDS among youth in Guangxi as an example.
Methods:
The reported HIV/AIDS cases of youths aged 15-24 in Guangxi from January 2014 to December 2021 were extracted from the Chinese Comprehensive Response Information Management System of HIV/AIDS. Data on population, economy, and health resources were obtained from the Guangxi Statistical Yearbook. ArcGIS 10.8 was used to describe the spatial distribution of AIDS incidence among youths in Guangxi. A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to analyze the distribution and associated factors of HIV/AIDS, such as gross domestic product per capita, population density, number of health technicians, and road miles per unit area.
Results:
From 2014-2021, a total of 4638 cases of HIV/AIDS infection among youths were reported in Guangxi. The reported incidence of HIV/AIDS cases among youths in Guangxi increased from 9.13/100,000 in 2014 to 11.15/100,000 in 2019 and then plummeted to a low of 8.37/100,000 in 2020, followed by a small increase to 9.66/100,000 in 2021. The incidence was higher in Xixiangtang, Xingning, Jiangnan, Qingxiu, Yufeng, Chengzhong, Liunan, Xiufeng, Qixing, Haicheng, Longlin, Napo, Xilin, Pingxiang, Dongxing, and Mengshan. The risk of an incidence of HIV and AIDS was associated with population density and the number of health technicians. For every 100 increases in people per square kilometre, the relative risk of HIV/AIDS increases by 13.46% (95% CI: 1.0256-1.2524). For every 100 health technicians increase, the relative risk of HIV/AIDS increases by 21.37% (95% CI: 1.1343-1.2971).
Conclusions:
In Guangxi, current HIV and AIDS prevention and control among young people should focus on areas with a high risk of disease. It is suggested to strengthen the allocation of AIDS health resources and balance urban development and AIDS prevention. In addition, AIDS awareness, detection, and intervention among Guangxi youths need to be strengthened.
Citation
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