Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jun 3, 2023
Date Accepted: Dec 14, 2023
Global trends in the incidence of anxiety disorders from 1990 to 2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis
ABSTRACT
Background:
Anxiety disorders (ADs) are the most common mental illness with high prevalence, chronicity, and comorbidity. Despite rapid economic and cultural development, the global incidence of ADs continues to increase, with a male predominance.
Objective:
To address the above issues, we analyzed the dynamic trends of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs from 1990 to 2019 and their different effects on age, period and birth cohort and predicted the future trend of AD incidence.
Methods:
The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. A joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percent change in AD incidence, and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was used to predict the incidence of ADs from 2020 to 2044.
Results:
The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of ADs increased by 1.06% for both sexes, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) decreased by 0.12%. Joinpoint regression indicated that increments in average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the ASIR (0.068 vs. 0.012) and ASDR (0.035 vs. -0.015) for ADs globally were higher among males than females. The APC analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of the incidence and DALYs of ADs among people of different sexes increased with age in adolescence and middle age and then decreased. For the period effect, the RR of incidence decreased, whereas the RR of DALYs increased in both sexes. Moreover, the RR of the incidence gradually increased and DALYs slowly decreased with birth year for both men and women. New cases of ADs in men are predicted to increase in the coming 25 years.
Conclusions:
This study provided the changing trend of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs in the past three decades, indicating that early prevention and effective control cannot be ignored. We analyzed the APC effect of potential trends in ADs and predicted future incidence trends. The results suggest that we should take active intervention measures, focusing on high-risk groups, and develop effective management and control policies to reduce the global burden of disease.
Citation
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Copyright
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