Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Apr 24, 2023
Open Peer Review Period: Apr 24, 2023 - May 8, 2023
Date Accepted: Aug 10, 2023
Date Submitted to PubMed: Aug 10, 2023
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Burden of esophageal and stomach cancer attributable to dietary carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
Little is known about trends and projections of disease burden of dietary esophagus and stomach cancers (ESCs) in China.
Objective:
We aim to report ESCs death and DALYs in 1990 - 2019 and their predictions to 2044.
Methods:
We retrieved dietary ESCs data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The models of Joinpoint regression and an age-period-cohort (APC) were conducted to analyze the trend of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dietary ESCs from 1990 to 2019 in China. Bayesian APC models were used to predict disease burden of ESCs through 2044. Attribution changes between 2019 and 2044 were apportioned into population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes.
Results:
The summary exposure values and age-standardized rates decreased significantly from 1990 to 1999, with a percentage change of -0.06 (95% CI: -0.11 – -0.02) and -0.05 (95% CI: -0.10 – -0.02), respectively. In addition, both data from Joinpoint regression and APC analysis demonstrated significantly decreased trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of ESCs attributable to dietary carcinogens. From 2019 to 2044, there are gradually decreased trends in the ASMR and ASDR for dietary ESCs, but the number of new death and DALYs cases is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging.
Conclusions:
Although the predicted age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs of dietary ESCs show downward trends, the absolute number would still increase in the next 25 years due to the rapid population aging seen in China. Clinical Trial: N/A
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