Due to necessary scheduled maintenance, the JMIR Publications website will be unavailable from Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience this may cause you.
Who will be affected?
Readers: No access to all 28 journals. We recommend accessing our articles via PubMed Central
Authors: No access to the submission form or your user account.
Reviewers: No access to your user account. Please download manuscripts you are reviewing for offline reading before Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 7:00 PM.
Editors: No access to your user account to assign reviewers or make decisions.
Copyeditors: No access to user account. Please download manuscripts you are copyediting before Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 7:00 PM.
Chen W, Zhang B, Wang C, An W, Guruge S, Chui Hk, Yang M
A Metric of Societal Burden Based on Virus Succession to Determine Economic Losses and Health Benefits of China’s Lockdown Policies: Model Development and Validation
Overview of profits and deficits of China lockdown policy: using societal burden metric based on virus succession
Wenxiu Chen;
Bin Zhang;
Chen Wang;
Wei An;
Shashika Guruge;
Ho-kwong Chui;
Min Yang
ABSTRACT
Lockdown is valid quick to control the virus spread, but it will cost huge social burden. This study provides a quantitative method was established to trade off the health gains and economic losses resulting from lockdown measures, based on the burden of disease calculation recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). An optimization method to estimate the fatality rate and half-life of different strains of SARS-CoV-2, which indicate a declining trend in the fatality rates of SARS-CoV-2 strains over time, with a half-life of approximately 8 months. The economic losses incurred from lockdown measures are found to be directly proportional to the case fatality rate, rather than population size or per-capita output value. The profits of unchanged lockdown measures can be devoured by the decrease fatality rate due to virus mutation succession. While the initial lockdown of Wuhan resulted in significant profits, the decreasing fatality rate of mutant strains has led to a gradual shift towards deficits. As such, effective lockdown strategies should be continuously adjusted and improved based on the changes in fatality and infection rates of different virus strains to maximize profits.
Citation
Please cite as:
Chen W, Zhang B, Wang C, An W, Guruge S, Chui Hk, Yang M
A Metric of Societal Burden Based on Virus Succession to Determine Economic Losses and Health Benefits of China’s Lockdown Policies: Model Development and Validation