Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Apr 12, 2023
Date Accepted: Apr 19, 2024
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Overview of profits and deficits of China lockdown policy: using a societal burden metric based on virus succession
ABSTRACT
Lockdown is valid quick to control the virus spread, but it will cost huge social burden. This study provides a quantitative method was established to trade off the health gains and economic losses resulting from lockdown measures, based on the burden of disease calculation recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). An optimization method to estimate the fatality rate and half-life of different strains of SARS-CoV-2, which indicate a declining trend in the fatality rates of SARS-CoV-2 strains over time, with a half-life of approximately 8 months. The economic losses incurred from lockdown measures are found to be directly proportional to the case fatality rate, rather than population size or per-capita output value. The profits of unchanged lockdown measures can be devoured by the decrease fatality rate due to virus mutation succession. While the initial lockdown of Wuhan resulted in significant profits, the decreasing fatality rate of mutant strains has led to a gradual shift towards deficits. As such, effective lockdown strategies should be continuously adjusted and improved based on the changes in fatality and infection rates of different virus strains to maximize profits.
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