Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Feb 22, 2023
Open Peer Review Period: Feb 20, 2023 - Mar 15, 2023
Date Accepted: Dec 10, 2023
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Global magnitude and secular trend of myocarditis burden: A comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
ABSTRACT
Background:
Myocarditis characterized by high disability and mortality imposes severe burdens on population health globally. But the latest global magnitude and secular trend of myocarditis burden has not been reported.
Objective:
The study aimed to delineate the epidemiological characteristics globally in myocarditis burden for optimizing targeted prevention and research.
Methods:
Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the myocarditis burden from 1990 to 2019 was modeled by the Cause of Death Ensemble tool, DisMod-MR, and spatiotemporal Gaussian regression. We depicted the epidemiology and trends of myocarditis by sex, age, year, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). R program version 4.2.1 was applied for all statistical analyses, and the two-sided P-value <0.05 was assumed statistically significant.
Results:
The number of incident cases (1 268 000) and deaths (32 450) of myocarditis in 2019 increased by above 1.6 times compared with 1990 globally. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate (ASDR) decreased from 1990 to 2019. The higher SDI regions always showed more significant ASIR. The Middle SDI region presented the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. Senior citizens had a larger quantity of incident cases and deaths among both sexes in 2019. The <1 year age group showed the peak number of DALYs in 2019 among both sexes. At the national level, the EAPCs of ASRs had significant negative correlations with the baseline ASRs in 1990.
Conclusions:
Globally, the number of incident cases and deaths of myocarditis increased significantly; conversely, ASRs of myocarditis presented decreasing trends from 1990 to 2019. Senior citizens gradually predominated in myocarditis burden. Policymakers should establish targeted control based on gender, region, age, and SDI； strengthen aging-related health research; and take notice of the changes in epidemic characteristics of myocarditis.
Citation
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Copyright
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