Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Feb 8, 2023
Open Peer Review Period: Feb 8, 2023 - Feb 22, 2023
Date Accepted: Feb 8, 2024
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Projected Time to Elimination of Cervical Cancer under Various Intervention Scenarios: An Age–Period–Cohort Macrosimulation Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
The World Health Organization has called for the global elimination of cervical cancer. Modeling studies are required for estimating and projecting the long-term effects into the future.
Objective:
We developed a macrosimulation framework to predict the timing of cervical cancer elimination in Taiwan and investigate whether this process can be accelerated by adopting scaled-up screening [cytology- or human papillomavirus (HPV)-based] and HPV vaccination.
Methods:
The macrosimulation framework involved performing age–period–cohort modeling and calculating the population-attributable fractions for several intervention scenarios. The data on cervical cancer cases diagnosed from 1997 to 2016 and the corresponding populations were extracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We projected the future incidence rate of cervical cancer under the status quo and the various intervention scenarios.
Results:
We predicted that Taiwan can eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 through 70% compliance with screening (cytology-based or HPV-based) or 90% coverage of HPV vaccination. The projected elimination years are 2047/2035 for screening (cytology-based/HPV-based), 2050 for vaccination, and 2038/2033 for a combination of both screening and vaccination.
Conclusions:
The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework developed in this study is a useful polices analysis tool for disease control. The policy analysis results in this study can serve as a reference for other countries with a high incidence of cervical cancer. Clinical Trial: NA
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