Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jan 23, 2023
Date Accepted: Apr 20, 2023
Global, Regional and National Prevalence of Gout, 1990-2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis with Prediction
ABSTRACT
Background:
Gout is a common and debilitating condition that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advances in medical treatment, the global burden of gout continues to increase, particularly in high social demographic index (SDI) regions.
Objective:
To address this issue, we used age-period-cohort modeling to analyze global trends in gout incidence and prevalence between 1990 and 2019.
Methods:
Data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess all-age prevalence and age-standardized prevalence rates, as well as years of lived disability (YLDs) rates, for 204 countries and territories. Age, period, and cohort (APC) effects were also examined in relation to gout prevalence. Future burden prediction was carried out using the Norped APC prediction of future incidence cases and Bayesian APC model.
Results:
The global gout incidence has increased by 63.44% over the past two decades, with a corresponding increase of 51.12% in global years lived with disability (YLDs). The gender ratio remained consistent at 3:1 male to female, but the incidence increased in both genders over time. Notably, the prevalence and incidence of gout were highest in high SDI regions (95% UI 14.19-20.62), with a growth rate of 94.3%. Gout prevalence increases steadily with age, and that the prevalence increases rapidly in high social demographic index quantiles for the period effect. Finally, the cohort effect showed that the gout prevalence increases steadily, with the risk of morbidity increasing in younger birth cohorts. Our prediction estimated the gout burden would increase in the future.
Conclusions:
Our study provides important insights into the global burden of gout and highlights the need for effective management and prophylaxis of this condition. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in gout prevalence and incidence, and our findings can inform the development of targeted interventions to address this growing health issue.
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