Accepted for/Published in: Online Journal of Public Health Informatics
Date Submitted: Dec 19, 2022
Date Accepted: Dec 27, 2023
Did Domestic Travelers Expand the COVID-19 Outbreak?: Ex Post Evaluation by Retrospective Observation Study for Long-Distance Domestic Travel Ban Policies in Japan During Original Wuhan Strain Dominance
ABSTRACT
Background:
Long-distance travel was banned while the SARS-Cov-2 original strain was dominant. Nevertheless, that policy had not been adequately evaluated.
Objective:
We evaluated long-distance travel effects on infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures including the “Go To Travel Campaign” (GTTC) travel subsidy policy.
Methods:
We regressed the effective reproduction number R(t) on long-distance travel, temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as the emergency state declaration or GTTC in Kagoshima prefecture. The number of airport limousine bus users represented long-distance travel volumes. The study assessed data from May 16, 2020 through February 2022, before variant strains emerged and became dominant.
Results:
Estimation results indicate declining infectivity along with long-distance travel volumes. Moreover, R(t) was lower during GTTC.
Conclusions:
Policies banning long-distance travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance travel with appropriate infection control measures did not spread COVID-19 infection in tourist areas.
Citation
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