Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Oct 20, 2022
Date Accepted: Jan 11, 2023
Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence to 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-based Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
The global burden of lung cancer (LC) continues to increase. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help to optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.
Objective:
This study aimed to predict the future LC incidence in 40 countries through 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.
Methods:
Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and were used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and numbers of incident cases were predicted through 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.
Results:
Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries are predicted to decrease by 23.0% in males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2.1% in females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, while the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the US, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur in males in Belarus (49.3) and in females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.3%, from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 in 2035. China will have the largest numbers of new cases.
Conclusions:
LC incidence is expected to continue increasing through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major challenge to public health worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for the redistribution of resources and improved LC control measures to reduce the future LC burden worldwide.
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