JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Conceptual models are abstract representations of the real world, they are used across many fields “sciences, socioeconomics and software development”, during the pandemic of COVID-19 a number of analytic predictive modules has been generated to evaluate the impact of policies implemented on COVID-19 pandemic propagation, the outcome of these modules indicated that non-pharmacological intervention (NPI) would have an impact on the pandemic progression, Intensive care admission, and proposed for systematic controlled elevation of lockdown to delay and protect against the pandemic second peak.

Objective:

Our research aims to implement a conceptual model that analyzes the “Covid-19” positive cases diagnosed in our institute from 1st March to 31st of May 2020 representing the initial SARS-cov2 pandemic wave, the time interval in which local policies and clinical guidelines are constantly updated to mitigate the SARS-cov2 local effect, minimize mortality/ICU admission and ensure safety of healthcare providers. The secondary objective is to evaluate the sensitivity of theCURB-65 score in predicting ICU admission /mortality among the study population.

Methods:

This is a cross-sectional study; The relevant attributes were electronically retrieved from the hospital database; the model construction analysis was based on the guidelines of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making “ISPOR-SMDM”

Results:

The conceptualization model revealed that the study population was at low risk for mortality and ICU admission based on the following attributes, the study population mean age of was 42±19.2 years, of which 19% were ≥60years, 80% with a 65-CURP score<4, 53% with no morbid, 5% with extreme obesity. The overall mortality in the study population was 1.5% with 5% ICU admission. 5%healthcare providers were SARS-Cov2 positive indicating effectiveness of policy implemented to minimize healthcare provider exposure, the multivariate correlation analysis revealed that a high selectivity policy was adopted in which patients with complex medical problems were not deployed to MOH isolation facilities

Conclusions:

Based on the conceptual model outcome selectivity applied to retain high-risk populations within the healthcare facility might have contributed to the low mortality identified without increase risk to the attending healthcare providers Clinical Trial: this not a clinical trial