JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

To explore the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) infection in populations at a high risk of TB in different age groups to achieve the goals of the End TB Strategy.

Objective:

To forecast the incidence of TB infection and to investigate the risk factors for TB in different age groups to prevent TB.

Methods:

Correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationships between TB cases in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2017 and ecological factors, including environmental, economic, and social factors. The transfer function-noise (TFN) model was used to forecast trends.

Results:

We examined data from Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2017 and found that the total illiteracy rate and average pressure at each measuring station (for individuals aged 15-24) were risk factors for TB. The following factors protected against TB: the number of families with the minimum living standard guarantee in urban areas, average wind speed, number of discharged patients with invasive TB, number of people with the minimum living standard guarantee in rural areas, total health expenditure as a percentage of regional GDP, being a single male (for individuals aged 0-14), number of hospitals, number of health workers in infectious disease hospitals (for individuals aged 25-64), amount of daily morning and evening exercise, number of people with the urban minimum living standard guarantee, and being married (for females aged >64 years). The TFN model predicted that by 2035, the incidence of TB in males aged 0-14 and 15-24 will rise, and the incidence of TB in females aged 0-14 and >64 will increase rapidly.

Conclusions:

In different age groups, environmental, educational, medical, social, personal and other factors should be comprehensively considered to reduce the incidence of TB. Further efforts are needed to reduce TB in females aged 0-14, males aged 0-24 and women >64 years of age. Clinical Trial: Not applicable.