Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Infodemiology
Date Submitted: May 27, 2022
Date Accepted: Apr 11, 2023
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Open-source intelligence for detection of radiological events and syndromes following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022
ABSTRACT
On February 25th, 2022, Russian forces took control of the Chernobyl power plant after continuous fighting within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Continual events occurred within the month of March which raised the risk of a potential contamination of previously uncontaminated areas, and the potential for impacts on human and environmental health. Due to normal preventive activities and radiation monitoring sensors have been nonfunction, open-source intelligence has become vital when real time data is diminished. This paper aimed to demonstrate the value of two open-source intelligence in the Ukraine to identify signals of potential radiological events of health significance during the Ukrainian conflict. Both EPIWATCH and Epitweetr, two open-source systems, identified potential radiobiological events throughout Ukraine particularly on March 4th in Kyiv, Bucha and 16 reports within Chernobyl. The significance of OSINT during the invasion, where formal reporting will continue to be scarce, will be to supplement more formal data sources and provide essential early warning of radiobiological events and ensure timely emergency and public health response.
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