Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Feb 23, 2022
Date Accepted: Apr 19, 2022
Characteristics and influencing factors of HIV/AIDS in Luzhou City, 2011-2020: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis
ABSTRACT
Background:
The vastly increasing number of HIV/AIDS reports in Luzhou in recent years, coupled with the city's unique geographical location at the intersection of four provinces, makes it particularly important to conduct a spatial-temporal analysis of HIV/AIDS.
Objective:
To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of HIV and influencing factors in Luzhou City from 2011 to 2020.
Methods:
The incidence data of HIV/AIDS in Luzhou from 2011 to 2020 were obtained from the AIDS Information Management System of the Luzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Software ArcGIS 10.5 was used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of HIV/AIDS incidence. The Bayesian Spatio-temporal model was used to investigate factors affecting its spatiotemporal distribution, including GDP per capita, urbanization rate, number of hospital beds, population density, and road mileage.
Results:
The reported incidence of HIV/AIDS rose from 8.47/105 in 2011 to 49.27/105 in 2020, an increase of 581.46%. In the first five years, hotspots were concentrated in Jiangyang District, Longmatan District, and Luxian County. After 2016, Luzhou's high HIV incidence areas gradually shifted eastward, focusing on Hejiang County, with the highest average prevalence rate (41.25/105) from 2011 to 2020, 2.3 times higher than Gulin County (17.76/105), where cold spots were concentrated. The risk for the incidence of HIV/AIDS was associated with the urbanization rate, population density, and GDP per capita. For every 1% increase in the urbanization rate, the RR value increases by 1.3%, while the rise of 100 people per square kilometer would increase the RR by 8.7%, for every 1,000 RMB increase in GDP per capita, the RR value decreases by1.5%.
Conclusions:
In Luzhou, the current HIV/AIDS prevention and control needs to be focused on the location of each district/county government, suggesting that the region balanced urban development and HIV/AIDS prevention. Moreover, we should pay more concentrate on economically disadvantaged areas.
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