Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Research Protocols
Date Submitted: Feb 25, 2022
Open Peer Review Period: Feb 21, 2022 - Apr 18, 2022
Date Accepted: Aug 4, 2022
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Exponential growth bias of infectious diseases: a systematic review protocol
ABSTRACT
Background:
Humans have fundamental difficulties to grasp the extent of exponential growth, which is fundamental to grasp the extent of a spreading infectious disease. Exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively.
Objective:
This systematic review aims to identify, evaluate and synthesise the findings of empirical studies concerning exponential growth bias of infectious diseases
Methods:
A systematic review will be conducted using the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement. Risk of bias will be assessed using ROBINS-2 and STROBE. Data synthesis will be achieved through a narrative synthesis
Results:
As of February 2022, we included 11 studies, see PRISMA flow diagram, figure 1. This comprises 10 quasi-experimental studies and one cross sectional survey study. Preliminary themes identified are: The presence and effect of EGB of infectious diseases, visual and educational strategies to mitigate EGB of infectious diseases. Data extraction, narrative synthesis and risk of bias assessment will be expected to be due June 2022.
Conclusions:
This systematic review concludes on limitation of the research and drawing some lines related to how people comprehend and misperceive exponential growth and its’ consequences for mitigating infectious diseases. Furthermore, the study will give recommendations for communication of exponential growth of infectious diseases and suggestion for future research.
Citation
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Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.