Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Aug 27, 2021
Open Peer Review Period: Aug 27, 2021 - Sep 10, 2021
Date Accepted: Dec 28, 2021
Date Submitted to PubMed: Dec 29, 2021
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
The Disease and Economic Burdens of Oesophageal Cancer in China from 2013 to 2030: A Dynamic Cohort Modelling Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
Esophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of tumor death worldwide. Estimates of the EC burden in China are necessary that could offer evidence-based suggestions for local cancer control.
Objective:
Our paper aimed to predict the disease burden of EC in China through the estimation of the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and DMC by gender for the period of 2013 to 2030.
Methods:
A dynamic cohort Markov model was developed to simulate the EC prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and direct medical expenditure (DME) based on gender. JoinPoint Regression Program was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of DALY rates, while the average annual growth rate (AAGR) was applied to analyze the changing trend of DME over time.
Results:
From 2013 to 2030, the predicted EC prevalence increased from 60.98 to 64.51 per 100 000, with the annual EC cases increased from 835.57 thousand to 931.79 thousand. The DALYs increased from 3003.38 to 3644.35 thousand, and the YLL accounted for the majority of DALYs. The DALY rates per 100 000 people increased in males (302.89 – 384.31 per 100 000), and it decreased in females (131.21- 115.91 per 100 000). The AAPC were 0.8% (95% CI, 0.8%- 0.9%), 1.4%(95% CI, 1.3%- 1.5%), and -0.7%(95% CI, -0.8%- -0.7%) for both-sex, males and females, respectively. The DME increased from 33.378 to 76.391 billion, and the AAGR was 5.0%. DME was 2-3 fold higher for males than for females.
Conclusions:
EC still caused a severe burden on society. YLL was responsible for the majority of the DALYs, which addressed an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the EC burden.
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