JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background Tobacco control models are mathematical models predicting tobacco-related outcomes in defined populations. We consider policy simulation models (PSMs) as a subcategory of tobacco control models simulating the potential outcomes of tobacco control policy options. We could not identify any existing tool specifically designed to assess the quality of tobacco control models. Therefore, our systematic methodology review aims to: identify best modelling practices; highlight common pitfalls; and develop recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control PSMs. Crucially, these recommendations can empower model users to assess the quality of current and future modelling studies, potentially leading to better tobacco policy decision making for the public. This protocol describes planned systematic review stages, paper inclusion and exclusion criteria, data extraction and analysis methods. Methods Two reviewers searched five databases, Embase, EconLit, PsycINFO, PubMed and CINAHL Plus, to identify eligible studies published between July 2013 and August 2019. We included papers projecting tobacco-related outcomes with a focus on tobacco control policies in any population and setting. Eligible papers were independently screened by two reviewers. The data extraction form was designed and piloted to extract model structure, data sources, transparency, validation and other qualities. We will use a narrative synthesis to present the results by summarising model trends, analysing model approaches, and reporting data input and result quality. We will propose recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control PSMs using findings from this review and related literature. Trial registration International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) number CRD42020178146.