Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Research Protocols
Date Submitted: Jan 6, 2021
Open Peer Review Period: Dec 30, 2020 - Feb 24, 2021
Date Accepted: Apr 8, 2021
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Models: Systematic Methodological Review Protocol
ABSTRACT
Background:
Tobacco control models are mathematical models predicting tobacco-related outcomes in defined populations. The policy simulation model is considered as a subcategory of tobacco control models simulating the potential outcomes of tobacco control policy options. However, we could not identify any existing tool specifically designed to assess the quality of tobacco control models.
Objective:
Our systematic methodology review aims to: identify best modelling practices; highlight common pitfalls; and develop recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models. Crucially, these recommendations can empower model users to assess the quality of current and future modelling studies, potentially leading to better tobacco policy decision making for the public. This protocol describes planned systematic review stages, paper inclusion and exclusion criteria, data extraction and analysis methods.
Methods:
Two reviewers searched five databases, Embase, EconLit, PsycINFO, PubMed and CINAHL Plus, to identify eligible studies published between July 2013 and August 2019. We included papers projecting tobacco-related outcomes with a focus on tobacco control policies in any population and setting. Eligible papers were independently screened by two reviewers. The data extraction form was designed and piloted to extract model structure, data sources, transparency, validation and other qualities. We will use a narrative synthesis to present the results by summarising model trends, analysing model approaches, and reporting data input and result quality. We will propose recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models using findings from this review and related literature.
Results:
Data collection is in progress. Results are expected to be completed and submitted for publication by April 2021.
Conclusions:
This systematic methodological review will summarise best practices and pitfalls existed among tobacco control policy simulation models and present a recommendation list of a high quality tobacco control simulation model. A more standardised and quality assured tobacco control policy simulation model will benefit modellers, policymakers and the public on both model building and decision making. Clinical Trial: International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) number CRD42020178146; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020178146
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Copyright
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