Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Date Submitted: Sep 24, 2020
Date Accepted: Jul 5, 2021
Predicting Norovirus in the US using Google Trends: Infodemiology Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
Norovirus is a contagious disease leading to vomiting and diarrhea. The transmission of norovirus spreads quickly and easily in various ways. Because effective methods to prevent or treat norovirus have not been discovered, it is important to rapidly recognize and report norovirus outbreaks in the early phase. Internet search has been a useful method for people to access information immediately. With the precise record of Internet search trends, Internet search has been a useful tool to manifest infectious disease outbreaks.
Objective:
In this study, we tried to discover the correlation between Internet search terms and norovirus infection.
Methods:
The Internet search trend data of norovirus were obtained from Google Trends. We used cross-correlation analysis to discover the temporal correlation between norovirus and other terms. We also used multiple linear regression with the stepwise method to recognize the most important predictors of Internet search trends and norovirus. In addition, we evaluated the temporal correlation between actual norovirus cases and Internet search terms in New York, California, and USA.
Results:
Some Google search terms such as gastroenteritis, vomiting, and watery diarrhea were coincided with norovirus Google Trends. Some Google search terms such as contagious, Norwalk virus, travel presented earlier than norovirus Google Trends. Some Google search terms such as dehydration, bar, and restaurant presented several months later than norovirus Google Trends. We found that the symptoms of gastroenteritis, including vomiting and watery diarrhea, were important factors that were significantly correlated with norovirus Google Trends. In actual norovirus cases of New York, California, and USA, some Google search terms presented coincided, earlier, or later than actual norovirus cases.
Conclusions:
Our study provides novel strategy-based Internet search evidence regarding the epidemiology of norovirus.
Citation
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