Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jul 21, 2020
Date Accepted: Jan 30, 2021
Estimation of the incidence of conjunctivitis - comparing the frequency of Google™ search terms with clinical data
ABSTRACT
Background:
Infectious conjunctivitis is contagious and may lead to an outbreak. Prevention systems can help to restrain this.
Objective:
To evaluate if Google™ search data on conjunctivitis and associated terms is able to estimate the incidence and if it may provide an estimation for outbreaks.
Methods:
We obtained Google™ search data over four years for the German term for conjunctivitis (“Bindehautentzündung”) and 714 associated terms in 12 selected German cities and Germany as a whole using the Google™ AdWords Keyword Planner. The search volume from Freiburg was correlated with clinical data from the Freiburg emergency practice, Eye Center University of Freiburg.
Results:
The search volume for the German terms for conjunctivitis in Germany as a whole and in the 12 German cities shows a highly uniform seasonal pattern. Cross-correlation between the temporal search frequencies in Germany as a whole and the 12 selected cities is high without any lag. Cross-correlation of the search volume in Freiburg with the frequency conjunctivitis (ICD codes "H10.-") from the centralized ophthalmologic emergency practice in Freiburg reveals a considerable temporal association with a time lag of 7 days. Also, Perason’s correlation between the count of patients per month and the count of searches per month in Freiburg is statistically significant (P=.04).
Conclusions:
We observe a close correlation between the Google™ search volume for signs and symptoms of conjunctivitis and the patient frequency with a congruent diagnosis in the Freiburg region. Regional deviations from the nationwide average search volume may therefore indicate a regional outbreak of infectious conjunctivitis.
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