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Identification of Patterns in Epidemic Cycles and Methods for Estimating Their Duration: COVID-19 Case Study
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho;
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
ABSTRACT
This paper presents several epidemic cycles of COVID-19 that have practically ended in countries, states and cities and normalize them through simple and well-known numerical methods. It is evident that there is a practically universal pattern between them, in a triangular shape. It is also possible to find similar cycles with very close scales and thus use cases with cycles already closed to predict the end of the cycles still in progress. Three methods are presented and discussed and the case of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is presented in more detail.
Citation
Please cite as:
De Carvalho EA, De Carvalho RA
A Framework for a Statistical Characterization of Epidemic Cycles: COVID-19 Case Study