JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Although the SARS CoV-2 virus has already undergone several mutations, the impact of these mutations on infectivity and virulence remains controversial. In this viewpoint we present arguments suggesting less virulence but much higher infectivity. This suggestion is based on the results of the forecasting and mechanistic models developed by our group. In particular, the analysis of our mechanistic model predicted in May 2020, that the easing of the lockdown measures will lead to a dramatic ‘second wave’. However, after the lifting of the lockdown in many European counties, the resulting number of reported infected and especially the number of deaths remained small for approximately two months. This raised the false hope that a substantial ‘second wave’ will be avoided and that the Covid-19 epidemics in these European countries was coming to an end. Unfortunately, since the first week of August,2020, the number of reported infected increased dramatically. Furthermore, this was accompanied by an increasingly large number of deaths. The rate of reported infected in the second wave was much higher than the first wave, whilst the rate of deaths was lower. This is consistent with higher infectivity and lower virulence. Even if the mutated form is less virulent, the very high number of reported infected implies that a large number of people will perish.