Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Date Submitted: Jul 11, 2020
Date Accepted: Mar 24, 2021
Date Submitted to PubMed: May 3, 2021
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Are the SARS-COV-2 epidemics in Europe coming to an end?
ABSTRACT
Using rigorous mathematical results, evidence is presented which suggests that the easing of the lockdown measures adopted by several European counties may not cause a substantial ‘second wave’, which would then imply that the Covid-19 epidemics in these European countries may be coming to an end. This evidence is based on the review of three completely different mathematical approaches: the first relies on the derivation of explicit formulas for predicting the cumulative number of deaths caused by SARS CoV-2 during the lockdown; the second is based on the use of similar formulas as well as on the employment of a powerful deep-learning network for predicting the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS CoV-2 during the lockdown; and the third is the consequence of the analysis of an elaborated SIR-type model with the capacity to predict accurately the number of deaths following the easing of the lockdown measures.
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