Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Aug 7, 2020
Date Accepted: Oct 28, 2020
COVID-19 spreading: a recursive model
ABSTRACT
This communication describes a recursive mathematical model of the spreading COVID-19 infection, which allows estimating the effectiveness of quarantine measures. This model takes into account the contagiousness of infected people during the incubation period of the disease and the conditionally non-contagiousness of sick people due to their isolation. The model was used to analyze the situation in eight countries and to find the viral transmissibility, which made it possible to give a brief prediction of the COVID-19 spreading.
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