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Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

Date Submitted: Aug 7, 2020
Date Accepted: Oct 28, 2020

The final, peer-reviewed published version of this preprint can be found here:

A Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19: Modelling Study

Ilyin SO

A Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19: Modelling Study

JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021;7(4):e21468

DOI: 10.2196/21468

PMID: 33871381

PMCID: 8057198

COVID-19 spreading: a recursive model

  • Sergey O Ilyin

ABSTRACT

This communication describes a recursive mathematical model of the spreading COVID-19 infection, which allows estimating the effectiveness of quarantine measures. This model takes into account the contagiousness of infected people during the incubation period of the disease and the conditionally non-contagiousness of sick people due to their isolation. The model was used to analyze the situation in eight countries and to find the viral transmissibility, which made it possible to give a brief prediction of the COVID-19 spreading.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Ilyin SO

A Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19: Modelling Study

JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021;7(4):e21468

DOI: 10.2196/21468

PMID: 33871381

PMCID: 8057198

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