JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

The magnitude and time-course of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States depends on early interventions to reduce Ro to below 1. It is imperative, then, to develop methods to actively assess where quarantine measures such as social distancing may be deficient and suppress those potential resurgence nodes as early as possible.

Objective:

The objective of this study is to determine whether social media is reliable in the assessment of social behavior during an epidemic, using the United States as proof of concept. We ask if social media is an early indicator of public social distancing measures in the USA by investigating its correlation with the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) as compared to social mobility estimates reported from Google and Apple Maps.

Methods:

In this observational study, estimated Rt was obtained for the period between March 5th and April 5th, 2020 using the EpiEstim package. Social media activity was assessed using queries of “social distancing” or “#socialdistancing” on Google Trends, Instagram and Twitter, with social mobility assessed using Apple and Google Maps data. Cross-correlations were performed between Rt and social media activity or mobility for the USA. We used Pearson correlations and the coefficient of determination (rho) with significance was set to P < 0.05.

Results:

Negative correlations were found between Google search interest for “social distancing” and Rt in the USA (P <.001), and between search interest and state-specific Rt for 9 states with highest COVID-19 cases (P <.001); most states experienced a delay varying between 3-8 days before reaching significance. A negative correlation was seen at a 4-day delay from the start of Instagram hashtag “#socialdistancing” and at 6 days for Twitter (P <.001). Significant correlations between Rt and social media manifest earlier in time compared to social mobility measures from Google and Apple maps, with peaks at -6 and -4. Meanwhile, changes in social mobility correlated best with Rt at -2 and +1 days for workplace and grocery/pharmacy respectively.

Conclusions:

Our study demonstrates potential use of Google Trends, Instagram, and Twitter as epidemiological tools in the assessment of social distancing measures in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their earlier correlation with future social behavior provides actionable insight into whether social distancing efforts will be enacted by the public and where. Social media can be used to help gauge the interest and potential success of this social distancing assisting in the creation of more accurate projections of the epidemic course. Limitations of this study are inherent to the use of Google Trends, Instagram, and Twitter that may represent a biased sample, including only those that are internet-literate and with access to internet, which may covary with socioeconomic status, education, geography and age.