Previously submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (no longer under consideration since Aug 05, 2020)
Date Submitted: Jun 8, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jun 8, 2020 - Jun 22, 2020
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
NOTE: This is an unreviewed Preprint
Warning: This is a unreviewed preprint (What is a preprint?). Readers are warned that the document has not been peer-reviewed by expert/patient reviewers or an academic editor, may contain misleading claims, and is likely to undergo changes before final publication, if accepted, or may have been rejected/withdrawn (a note "no longer under consideration" will appear above).
Peer review me: Readers with interest and expertise are encouraged to sign up as peer-reviewer, if the paper is within an open peer-review period (in this case, a "Peer Review Me" button to sign up as reviewer is displayed above). All preprints currently open for review are listed here. Outside of the formal open peer-review period we encourage you to tweet about the preprint.
Citation: Please cite this preprint only for review purposes or for grant applications and CVs (if you are the author).
Final version: If our system detects a final peer-reviewed "version of record" (VoR) published in any journal, a link to that VoR will appear below. Readers are then encourage to cite the VoR instead of this preprint.
Settings: If you are the author, you can login and change the preprint display settings, but the preprint URL/DOI is supposed to be stable and citable, so it should not be removed once posted.
Submit: To post your own preprint, simply submit to any JMIR journal, and choose the appropriate settings to expose your submitted version as preprint.
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
The Seasonal End of Human Coronavirus Hospital Admissions with Implications for SARS-CoV-2
ABSTRACT
The seasonality of influenza viruses and endemic human coronaviruses was tracked over an 8-year period to assess key epidemiologic reduction points in disease incidence for an urban area in the northeast United States. Patients admitted to a pediatric hospital with worsening respiratory symptoms were tested using a multiplex PCR assay from nasopharyngeal swabs. The additive seasonal effects of outdoor temperatures and indoor relative humidity (RH) were evaluated. The 8-year average peak activity of human coronaviruses occurred in the first week of January, when droplet and contact transmission was enabled by the low indoor RH of 20-30%. Previous studies have shown that an increase in RH to 50% has been associated with markedly reduced viability and transmission of influenza virus and animal coronaviruses. As disease incidence was reduced by 50% in early March, to 75% in early April, to greater than 99% at the end of April, a relationship was observed from colder temperatures in January with a low indoor RH to a gradual increase in outdoor temperatures in April with an indoor RH of 45-50%. As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 should be subject to the same dynamics of reduced viability and transmission with increased humidity. In addition to the major role of social distancing, the transition from lower to higher indoor RH with increasing outdoor temperatures could have an additive effect on the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases in May. Over the 8-year period of this study, human coronavirus activity was either zero or >99% reduction in the months of June through September, and the implication would be that SARS-Cov-2 may follow a similar pattern.
Citation
Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.
Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.