Currently submitted to: JMIR Preprints
Date Submitted: May 9, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: May 9, 2020 - Apr 24, 2021
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COVID-19: Escape routes from the Symplegades of hygienic crisis and economic meltdown
ABSTRACT
A source of difficulties in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, is an incubation period in the order of several days combined with a reproduction rate above two, resulting in fast growth that goes undetected and forces authorities to adopt measures heavily disruptive to the economy and societal life at large. Recent findings regarding the detection of SARS-CoVid-2 in sewage waste water, point to the possibility of setting up early warning systems accompanied by geographically focused preventive policies, to minimise hygienic threat without resorting to nationwide lockdowns. Simple network modelling suggests that such systems would be equally relevant in the mitigation phase; this is when sources of massive transmission (superspreaders, strong population inhomogeneities) can have a detrimental effect and literally turn gain into loss.
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