Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Date Submitted: May 6, 2020
Date Accepted: Jul 13, 2020
Date Submitted to PubMed: Jul 13, 2020
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Effects of national containment measures on decelerating the increase in daily new cases of COVID-19 in 54 countries and four epicenters of pandemic
ABSTRACT
Background:
COVID-19 presents a worldwide epidemic, and various countries have responded differently in terms of containment measures to minimize disease transmission, including lockdowns, stay-at-home orders and curfews. Comparative studies are yet to be conducted to investigate the impact of these containment measures, which would be needed to facilitate public health policy-making across countries.
Objective:
To describe and evaluate the effects of national containment measures and policies (stay-at-home orders, curfews and lockdowns) on decelerating the increase in daily new cases (DNC) of COVID-19 in 54 countries and four epicenters of pandemic in different jurisdictions around the world.
Methods:
We reviewed the effective dates of national containment measures (lockdown, curfew, or stay-at-home order) of 54 countries and four epicenters of coronavirus pandemic (Wuhan, New York, Lombardy, and Madrid), and searched cumulative numbers of COVID-19 confirmed cases and DNC from health authorities. We examined the trends in the % increase in DNC before and after the effective dates of measures by continents, World Bank income classification, types of containment measures, effective dates of containment measures, sizes of confirmed cases at effective date of containment measures.
Results:
We included 116,343 patients with confirmed COVID-19 from 54 countries, and 24,071 patients from four epicenters on the effective day of containment measures where stay-at-home orders, curfews, or lockdowns took place between 23rd January and 11st April 2020. Those approaches were commonly commenced for countries with around 30%, 20%, and 10% increase in DNC, whereas stay-at-home or lockdown were effective in curbing the % increase to <5% within one month. 42·6% of countries had an average % increase in DNC of ≥50% at seven days prior to the commencement of containment measures, taking 17-18 days and 23-26 days to curb the % increase in DNC to 10% to 5%, respectively.
Conclusions:
Different national containment measures were associated with the decrease in the DNC confirmed with COVID-19 but both stay-at-home orders and lockdowns are more effective than curfew. Resurgence in cases within one month was observed in countries commencing containment measures after 29th March 2020, and countries in South America.
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