Maintenance Notice

Due to necessary scheduled maintenance, the JMIR Publications website will be unavailable from Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience this may cause you.

Who will be affected?

Previously submitted to: Journal of Medical Internet Research (no longer under consideration since Mar 03, 2021)

Date Submitted: May 7, 2020

Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

Evaluation of Turkish social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19

  • Irfan Civcir

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) affecting across the globe. The government of different countries has adopted various policies to contain this epidemic and the most common were social distancing and lockdown. We use a simple log-linear model with intercept and trend break to evaluate whether the measures are effective preventing/slowing down the spread of the disease in Turkey. We estimate the model parameters from the Johns Hopkins University (2020) epidemic data between 15th March and 26th April 2020. Our analysis revealed that the measures can slow down the outbreak. We can reduce the epidemic size and prolong the time to arrive at the epidemic peak by seriously following the measures suggested by the authorities.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Civcir I

Evaluation of Turkish social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19

JMIR Preprints. 07/05/2020:19883

DOI: 10.2196/preprints.19883

URL: https://preprints.jmir.org/preprint/19883

Download PDF


Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.

© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.