Previously submitted to: Journal of Medical Internet Research (no longer under consideration since Mar 03, 2021)
Date Submitted: May 7, 2020
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Evaluation of Turkish social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) affecting across the globe. The government of different countries has adopted various policies to contain this epidemic and the most common were social distancing and lockdown. We use a simple log-linear model with intercept and trend break to evaluate whether the measures are effective preventing/slowing down the spread of the disease in Turkey. We estimate the model parameters from the Johns Hopkins University (2020) epidemic data between 15th March and 26th April 2020. Our analysis revealed that the measures can slow down the outbreak. We can reduce the epidemic size and prolong the time to arrive at the epidemic peak by seriously following the measures suggested by the authorities.
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