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Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research

Date Submitted: Apr 26, 2020
Date Accepted: Jun 15, 2020
Date Submitted to PubMed: Jun 16, 2020

The final, peer-reviewed published version of this preprint can be found here:

Identification of Symptoms Prognostic of COVID-19 Severity: Multivariate Data Analysis of a Case Series in Henan Province

Li J, Chen Z, Nie Y, Ma Y, Guo Q, Dai X

Identification of Symptoms Prognostic of COVID-19 Severity: Multivariate Data Analysis of a Case Series in Henan Province

J Med Internet Res 2020;22(6):e19636

DOI: 10.2196/19636

PMID: 32544071

PMCID: 7332230

Prognostic Symptoms on COVID-19 Severity

  • Jitian Li; 
  • Zhe Chen; 
  • Yifei Nie; 
  • Yan Ma; 
  • Qiaoyun Guo; 
  • Xiaofeng Dai

ABSTRACT

Background:

Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 infection (SARS-CoV-2) outbroke in China and had rapidly transmitted worldwide. Identifying individuals potentially become severe is critical to control the case-fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Yet, knowledge on symptoms prognostic of COVID-19 severity is lacking.

Objective:

The objective of our study was to identify symptoms prognostic of COVID-19 infection severity.

Methods:

We analyzed documented symptoms including fever, cough, fatigue, expectoration, sore throat, chest distress, headache, diarrhea, rhinorrhea, stuffy nose, nausea, vomiting, muscle or joint ache, shortness of breath, and their associations with patient severity using a case series including 655 confirmed cases from January 23 to February 5, 2020 in Henan province, China. We also analyzed the influence of individual characteristics including age, gender and comorbidities on symptoms with prognostic value.

Results:

‘Fever’ occurred in 92.1% of the patients, but was not associated with patient severity. ‘Fatigue’ accounted for 28.1% of the patients, and was linearly associated with infection severity with statistical significance. ‘Expectoration’ took 25.8% of the cohort size and was the sole prognostic factor for patients carrying cardiovascular complications including hypertension. ‘Shortness of breath’, ‘chest distress’, ‘muscle or joint ache’ and ‘dry cough’, each representing 5%, 12.7%, 11.9%, 42.1% of the patients, were significantly enriched in the ‘severe’ group. ‘Stuffy nose’ and ‘nausea’ were associated with favorable patient severity especially among males. More females than males were documented with ‘Muscle or joint ache’. ‘Headache’ was enriched in the ‘15 to 39’ age group followed by the ’40 to 64’ age group with statistical significance.

Conclusions:

‘Fatigue’ and ‘expectoration’ are signs of severe COVID-19 infection. ‘Shortness of breath’, ‘chest distress’, ‘muscle or joint ache’ and ‘dry cough’ are prevalent in severe patients. ‘Expectoration’ is commonly present in patients carrying cardiovascular disorders including hypertension, and elder individuals. ‘Shortness of breath’ is prognostic of severe infection in males. ‘Stuffy nose’ and ‘nausea’ are favorable factors especially among males.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Li J, Chen Z, Nie Y, Ma Y, Guo Q, Dai X

Identification of Symptoms Prognostic of COVID-19 Severity: Multivariate Data Analysis of a Case Series in Henan Province

J Med Internet Res 2020;22(6):e19636

DOI: 10.2196/19636

PMID: 32544071

PMCID: 7332230

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