Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Date Submitted: Apr 22, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Apr 22, 2020 - Jun 17, 2020
Date Accepted: Apr 5, 2021
Date Submitted to PubMed: Apr 26, 2021
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Age-stratified Infection Probabilities Combined with Quarantine-Modified SEIR Model in the Needs Assessments for COVID-19
ABSTRACT
We use the age-stratified COVID-19 infection and death distributions from China (more than 44,672 infectious as of February 11, 2020) as an estimate for a study area infection and morbidity probabilities at each age group. We then apply these probabilities into the actual age-stratified population to predict infectious individuals and deaths at peak. Testing with different countries shows the predicted infectious skewing with the country median age and age stratification, as expected. We added a Q parameter to the classic SEIR compartmental model to include the effect of quarantine (Q-SEIR). The projections from the age-stratified probabilities give much lower predicted incidences of infection than the Q-SEIR model. As expected, quarantine tends to delay the peaks for both Exposed and Infectious, and to flatten the curve or lower the predicted values for each compartment. These two estimates were used as a range to inform planning and response to the COVID-19 threat.
Citation
Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.
Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.