JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

WHO has declared COVID19 as a public health emergency and at present, India is facing a major threat. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of “lock down” on the future COVID19 cases with a specific focus on India.

Objective:

The objective of this work is to develop a mathematical model and assess the impact of various "lock down" scenarios on the COVID19 transmission in India.

Methods:

A mathematical model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validating, it was applied to predict the COVID19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of “lock down” for 4, 14, 21, 42 and 60 days and also in situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals.

Results:

Developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID19 cases as compared to the actual reported cases. Marked reduction in predicted cases was observed for the intervention period of 14, 21 days of “lock down” and significant reduction for 42 days of “lock down”. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvements. Finally, in a scenario of ‘panic shopping’ or situations where a sudden increase in the factors leading to the higher exposure to infection, there will be an exponential transmission resulting in the failure of the considered intervention strategy.

Conclusions:

Implementation of strict “lock down” for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission and further extension up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID19 epidemic in India. Any relaxation in the “lock down” may lead to exponential transmission resulting in heavy burden on health system in the country.