Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Mar 9, 2020
Date Accepted: May 12, 2020
Date Submitted to PubMed: May 12, 2020
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
An Evaluation Model of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Effectiveness Based on Immigration Population Data in China
ABSTRACT
Background:
As of the end of February 2020, COVID-19 was currently well controlled in China. However, the virus is now spreading globally.
Objective:
This study aims to find a method to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention and control in different regions of China. And warnings can be issued at the first time when the prevention and control have problems.
Methods:
A model is built based on two sets of data (the number of daily new diagnosed, and the daily incoming immigration population size). The outputs from the model can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control in each regions of China.
Results:
The model can evaluate the effectiveness in each region on each day accurately, with the confirmation of related reports and news.
Conclusions:
This method is the first one to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China base on immigration population data. It has the advantage of early warning over the method by R0. Theoretically, it is applicable to evaluating the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention and control in other countries.
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