Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jun 20, 2018
Open Peer Review Period: Jun 24, 2018 - Aug 19, 2018
Date Accepted: Oct 30, 2018
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Period of Measurement in Time-Series Predictions of Disease Counts from 2007 to 2017 in Northern Nevada: Analytics Experiment
Background:
The literature in statistics presents methods by which autocorrelation can identify the best period of measurement to improve the performance of a time-series prediction. The period of measurement plays an important role in improving the performance of disease-count predictions. However, from the operational perspective in public health surveillance, there is a limitation to the length of the measurement period that can offer meaningful and valuable predictions.
Objective:
This study aimed to establish a method that identifies the shortest period of measurement without significantly decreasing the prediction performance for time-series analysis of disease counts.
Methods:
The data used in this evaluation include disease counts from 2007 to 2017 in northern Nevada. The disease counts for chlamydia, salmonella, respiratory syncytial virus, gonorrhea, viral meningitis, and influenza A were predicted.
Results:
Our results showed that autocorrelation could not guarantee the best performance for prediction of disease counts. However, the proposed method with the change-point analysis suggests a period of measurement that is operationally acceptable and performance that is not significantly different from the best prediction.
Conclusions:
The use of change-point analysis with autocorrelation provides the best and most practical period of measurement.
Citation
Per the author's request the PDF is not available.
Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.