Maintenance Notice

Due to necessary scheduled maintenance, the JMIR Publications website will be unavailable from Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience this may cause you.

Who will be affected?

Currently submitted to: JMIR Formative Research

Date Submitted: Aug 18, 2026
Open Peer Review Period: Aug 19, 2026 - Oct 14, 2026
(currently open for review)

Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

Development of an Evidence-Informed Patient Self-Assessment for Occult Cardiac Arrhythmia in Primary Care: Derivation of the CARDIAQ Screener From Real-World Evidence, Published Trials, and Society Guidelines

  • Pierantonio Russo; 
  • Jimmy Fernandez; 
  • Evan Jacobs

ABSTRACT

Background:

Palpitations, syncope and presyncope, and undiagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) are common and diagnostically frustrating presentations in primary care. The resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is diagnostic in only a minority of cases, and ambulatory cardiac monitoring is frequently both under- and over-used. Primary care already relies on brief patient-facing case-finding instruments for several conditions, but none is in routine use for occult arrhythmia. .

Conclusions:

CARDIAQ operationalizes guideline-concordant reasoning and real-world monitoring yield into a readable pre-visit aid for primary care. Its weights and thresholds are evidence-informed but not empirically calibrated; the instrument is not diagnostic and must not be used to direct management in its current form. A prospective, multisite diagnostic-accuracy and calibration study with blinded reference-standard ambulatory monitoring, reported to STARD 2015 and TRIPOD+AI, is the necessary next step before clinical adoption.

Objective:

Our study aimes to document transparently how professional-society guidelines, real-world diagnostic-yield evidence, and landmark detection trials were combined to construct CARDIAQ (Cardiac Arrhythmia Risk and Detection Investigation Assessment Questionnaire), an 8-item plain-language patient self-assessment for completion before or during a primary care visit, and to specify the prospective validation study required before clinical use.

Methods:

CARDIAQ items, response options, ordinal point weights, and risk bands were generated by mapping candidate variables to 3 concordant evidence streams: (1) professional-society guidelines for palpitations, syncope, bradycardia, and AF from the American College of Cardiology, American Heart Association, Heart Rhythm Society, European Society of Cardiology, European Heart Rhythm Association, and International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology; (2) reported real-world evidence on the diagnostic yield of ambulatory ECG by symptom frequency, comorbidity burden, and monitoring duration; and (3) landmark detection trials (CRYSTAL-AF, STROKE-AF, EMBRACE, LOOP, mSToPS, REHEARSE-AF) and established risk instruments (CHA2DS2-VASc, Canadian Syncope Risk Score, CHARGE-AF). Sources were selected purposively, not by systematic search. Point weights were assigned by evidence-anchored expert judgment; no derivation cohort was used and no weights were fitted to an observed outcome.

Results:

The instrument comprises 8 items: palpitation character and frequency; syncope, presyncope, or unexplained falls; new or unexplained fatigue, dyspnea, chest pain, or cognitive change; prior cardiac or cerebrovascular diagnoses; comorbidities; family history of early sudden cardiac death or a prior abnormal 12-lead ECG; age band; and sex at birth. Item weights (0-4) are summed to a total score stratified into 5 bands (very low, 0-3; low, 4-7; medium-high, 8-12; high, 13-17; very high, 18 or greater), each mapped to a graded action from routine follow-up to prompt specialist referral. A separate red-flag panel overrides the score and directs the patient to emergency care irrespective of the total. Every item is traceable to a specific guideline recommendation, yield dataset, or trial in an item-by-item derivation table. No discrimination, calibration, sensitivity, or specificity estimates exist for the instrument.

Conclusions:

CARDIAQ operationalizes guideline-concordant reasoning and real-world monitoring yield into a readable pre-visit aid for primary care. Its weights and thresholds are evidence-informed but not empirically calibrated; the instrument is not diagnostic and must not be used to direct management in its current form. A prospective, multisite diagnostic-accuracy and calibration study with blinded reference-standard ambulatory monitoring, reported to STARD 2015 and TRIPOD+AI, is the necessary next step before clinical adoption.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Russo P, Fernandez J, Jacobs E

Development of an Evidence-Informed Patient Self-Assessment for Occult Cardiac Arrhythmia in Primary Care: Derivation of the CARDIAQ Screener From Real-World Evidence, Published Trials, and Society Guidelines

JMIR Preprints. 18/08/2026:109923

DOI: 10.2196/preprints.109923

URL: https://preprints.jmir.org/preprint/109923

Download PDF


Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.

© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.