JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

University withdrawal carries disproportionately severe and lasting consequences in Japan, where those who leave higher education face long-term labor-market disadvantage despite a comparatively low dropout rate. A substantial share of withdrawals reflect maladjustment, low motivation, and disengagement rather than academic or financial causes alone, pointing to a weak sense of belonging as a common substrate. Sense of belonging is a well-established correlate of adjustment and persistence, yet the evidence remains largely cross-sectional, and interventions typically reach only students who already participate—leaving the disengaged, who are most at risk, structurally absent from both support and evidence.

Objective:

This trial tests whether encouraging disengaged first-year students to visit a permanent on-campus “belonging café” improves their sense of belonging. The primary hypothesis is that students randomized to encouragement show greater improvement in belonging over time than control students.

Methods:

In this single-site, parallel-group randomized controlled trial with five measurement waves, first-year students who were not using the café (non-users) are randomized 1:1 to an encouragement group or a control group, using stratified block randomization by faculty; existing users are followed as a non-randomized reference cohort. The encouragement is delivered through LINE, the messaging platform students most reliably use, with the two groups differing only in the LINE account to which they are invited. The primary outcome is sense of belonging (PSSM-13J), measured at every wave; secondary outcomes are well-being (WHO-5), loneliness, and intention to withdraw, with café visits as the hypothesized mediator. The primary analysis is a linear mixed-effects model testing the group-by-time interaction under an intention-to-treat framework, emphasizing effect size with 95% confidence interval. The trial is powered to detect an effect of approximately d = 0.4.

Results:

The trial was registered on the Open Science Framework prior to any outcome analysis. Recruitment and baseline assessment were completed in June 2026, with follow-up assessments scheduled through January 2027. As of submission, data collection is ongoing and no outcome analysis has been conducted. [IRRID: to be assigned on publication.]

Conclusions:

By combining a randomized design, prospective measurement, and a delivery channel chosen for its reach, this trial aims to provide causal evidence on a preventive, environment-level approach to student belonging, and to extend attention from the anxious-but-present to the disengaged. The protocol offers a model for rigorous causal evaluation of measures intended to address young people’s difficulties. Clinical Trial: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000061938; https://center6.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000070843. The trial was registered retrospectively (18 June 2026); the analysis plan was pre-registered on the Open Science Framework prior to any outcome analysis (osf.io/qt5bm).