JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Since 2020, Medicare Advantage (MA)-related internet searches have tripled, accompanied by increased regional marketing by private insurers. Commercial health insurance dominates the Internet during enrollment periods, often outpacing public sources in accessibility. Prior studies suggest that MA advertising significantly shapes enrollment and may fuel choices over traditional Medicare in certain subpopulations. We sought to better understand how health plan marketing strategies affect consumers by using Google Trend data and MA health plan enrollment selection. Novel analysis was applied to assess statistical relationships among marketing, internet searches, and enrollment data.

Objective:

1. To establish the validity of Google Trends data as a surrogate measure for consumer MA plan selection by demonstrating stable, repeatable seasonality and domain specificity using control terms such as car insurance and life insurance at national and Designated Market Area (DMA) levels. 2. To quantify the concordance between MA search interest and CMS enrollment data, testing whether search peaks coincide with or precede enrollment surges. 3. To assess whether local search intensity aligns with advertising exposure, evaluating search behavior as a potential proxy for marketing impact and consumer engagement.

Methods:

Retrospective Google Trends analysis of consumer search patterns from January 2004 -December 2024 utilizing relative search volume and conducting correlations with MA enrollment. Search data is accessible via the Google Trends website Explore tool, or by applying for Google Trends API alpha access. MA enrollment data originated from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) MA Dashboard. Kaiser Family Foundation provided the medical advertising marketing data.

Results:

A consistent, significant correlation between MA advertising and searches exists across U.S. markets, particularly before and during enrollment windows. Findings suggest linkage in user behavior between their volume of searches and their subsequent enrollment in an MA plan.

Conclusions:

Internet search data analysis illustrates trends of directed marketing for health insurance. Open access to data sources, ability to capture near real-time responses, and utility to associate beneficiary MA plan selection response data in geographic/time-dependent parameters demonstrate consumer behavior. Results indicate that media marketing results in choosing commercial MA over standard Medicare benefits. Analysis confirmed a significant correlation of seasonal trends in searches using terms associated with MA plans, peaking during Annual Enrollment Periods (October–December). Unlike other insurance products, data showed consistent growth in marketing campaigns, reflecting increased reliance on the internet for plan selection. Furthermore, exposure to targeted marketing correlates to actual plan enrollment. Improved accessibility to Medicare resources and directed messaging can bridge information gaps for underserved populations; and lead to more cost-effective decision-making by Medicare-eligible beneficiaries.