JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Positive cannabis use expectancies (CPE), the beliefs about the anticipated positive effects of cannabis, are a robust cognitive precursor of adolescent cannabis initiation and escalation. However, little is known about how sociodemographic, familial, and psychopathology predict CPE or how CPE evolves across early adolescence.

Objective:

This study aimed to identify distinct developmental trajectories of CPE among early adolescents using three waves of ABCD data. It further aims to examine baseline sociodemographic and policy-level predictors of trajectory membership, as well as the longitudinal effects of familial factors on CPE over time.

Methods:

This study employed latent class growth analysis (LCGA) using three waves of longitudinal data from Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study to identify distinct trajectories of CPE among a large, demographically diverse cohort of early adolescents (ages 10–13). Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine whether baseline sociodemographic and policy-level factors were associated with class membership. Time-varying effects of familial factors (i.e. parental monitoring, family cannabis use rules, and family conflict) and adolescents’ psychopathology were examined within and across trajectory classes using class-specific and common-effect models.

Results:

Four distinct CPE trajectories emerged with different profiles: moderate-increasing (42.1%), high-increasing (28.5%), low-increasing (20.2%), and high-decreasing (9.2%). Parental monitoring and strict family cannabis use rules consistently predicted lower CPE, particularly in the moderate and high increasing CPE groups, while family conflict emerged as a robust risk factor. Psychopathological symptoms became increasingly predictive of CPE at later ages suggesting developmental shifts in vulnerability.

Conclusions:

CPE development in early adolescence is heterogeneous and shaped by interplay among sociodemographic, familial, and psychopathological factors. These findings highlight critical windows for early, family-based prevention and underscore the importance of tailoring intervention strategies to specific developmental and risk profiles.