Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Dec 1, 2024
Date Accepted: Jul 23, 2025
Effects of Perceived Scarcity on Mental Health, Time and Risk Preferences, and Decision-Making During and After COVID-19 Lockdown: A Quasi-Natural Experimental Study
ABSTRACT
Background:
The COVID-19 lockdowns led to significant resource constraints, potentially impacting mental health and decision-making behaviors. Understanding the psychological and behavioral consequences could inform designing interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of episodic scarcity during crises like pandemics.
Objective:
To investigate the effects of perceived scarcity on mental health (stress and fear), cognitive functioning, time and risk preferences (present bias and risk aversion), and trade-offs between groceries, health, and temptation goods during and after the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai.
Methods:
A quasi-natural experiment was conducted in Shanghai during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Online surveys were administered in May 2022 (during lockdown) and September 2022 (post-lockdown). Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to balance demographic factors between the groups (During: n=332; After: n=339). Data were analyzed using regression analyses, controlling for potential confounders.
Results:
Perceived scarcity was significantly higher during the lockdown (mean=7.97) than after (mean=4.35; P<.001). Higher perceived scarcity was associated with increased stress levels both during (β=0.62, P<.001) and after the lockdown (β=0.65, P<.001). While cognitive functioning remained stable, possibly due to a ceiling effect from high education levels, monetary risk aversion increased under prolonged scarcity during lockdown (interaction β=4.68, P<.001). During lockdown, participants allocated more budget to groceries (β=0.67, P=.01) and less to health items (β=-0.61, P=.02).
Conclusions:
The study highlights that perceived scarcity during lockdown intensified stress and altered decision-making behaviors, including increased monetary risk aversion and shifts in spending priorities. Theoretically, this study advances the understanding of perceived scarcity by exploring its domain-specific effects on mental health and decision-making. Practically, these findings emphasize the need for public health strategies that mitigate the psychological impact of scarcity during crises, ensure access to essential goods, and support adaptive decision-making behaviors.
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