JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Studying illicit drug circulation and its effects on population health is complicated due to the criminalization of trade and consumption. Illicit drug markets have evolved with information technology, moving online to the “darknet.” Previous research has analyzed darknet market listings and customer reviews. Research tools include public health surveys and medical reports but lack neutral data on drugs' spread and impact. This study fills this gap with an analysis of the volume of drugs traded on the darknet market.

Objective:

Using the dark web data and officially published indicators to identify the most vulnerable regions of Russia and the correlations between the pairs of variables to measure how illicit drug trade can affect population well-being.

Methods:

We web-parsed the Hydra Darknet drug marketplace using Python code. The data set encompassed 3045 individual sellers marketing 6721 unique products via 58563 distinct postings, each representing specific quantities sold in different Russian regions during August-December 2019. In the second stage, we collected 31 variables from official sources, the National Ministry of Health, Police, prison reports, etc., to compare officially collected data with darknet data about amounts and types of selling drugs in every 85 regions of Russia. The health-related data were obtained from official published sources - statistical yearbooks. Maps, diagrams, correlation matrixes, and applied observational statistical methods were used.

Results:

In 2019, a minimum of 124 kilograms of drugs circulated daily in small batches on the Russian Darknet. Cannabis is the most popular, accounting for almost 30% or 37200 grams of all listings on the market. It has a 7.5 higher amount on the dark web market than opiates, with 4960 grams. The variable "grams of opiates” per region is significantly correlated with drug overdose deaths (r=.41; P=.003), HIV-positive cases due to drug use (r=.51; P=.002), and drug court convictions in Russia (r=.39; P=.004). Increased opiate sales correlate with more HIV from injected drug use (r=.47; P=.003). Conversely, more cannabis sales correlate with reduced harmful drug use (r=-.52; P=.002) and its prevalence (r=-.49; P=.001). These indicators accurately reflect regional drug issues, though some official statistics may be incomplete or biased.

Conclusions:

Our analysis reveals significant regional differences in drug consumption across Russia, with higher usage in urbanized areas like St. Petersburg and Moscow. Cannabis is less harmful, and opiates demonstrate a wide range of harm for the population. Policymakers should adopt region-specific strategies to address the unique socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing drug use. Clinical Trial: None to declare