Accepted for/Published in: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jul 23, 2023
Date Accepted: Dec 14, 2023
Spatiotemporal Pattern and its Determinants of Newly Reported HIV/AIDS among Older Adults in Eastern China from 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis
ABSTRACT
Background:
The first case of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was reported in 1981; since then, over 84 million individuals have been infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with over 40 million deaths attributed to AIDS-related illnesses.
Objective:
This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS among older adults in Eastern China, from 2004 to 2021 to improve prevention and intervention for HIV/AIDS.
Methods:
We extracted data on newly reported HIV/AIDS cases between 2004 and 2021 from a case-reporting system and used a joinpoint regression model and an age-period-cohort model to analyze the temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used for spatial aggregation and influence factor analysis.
Results:
A total of 12,376 HIV/AIDS cases were included in the study. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in reported HIV/AIDS incidences was 28.0% (95% CI: 21.6–34.8%). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that age, period, and cohort factors affected the incidence of HIV/AIDS among older adults. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in men who had sex with men (MSM) had spatial clustering, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Hangzhou. The disposable income of urban residents, illiteration rate, and number of hospital beds per 1,000 residents were associated with the risk of HIV/AIDS among older MSM in the Zhejiang province.
Conclusions:
HIV/AIDS among older adults showed an increasing trend and was influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. Older MSM showed regional clustering and was associated with factors such as the disposable income of urban residents, illiteracy rate, and the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people, which require strengthening targeted prevention and control.
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